Athens Growth Research Library - pdf
Athens Growth
Research Library
Village expansion • housing land • agricultural conversion • municipal land acquisition
Prepared 2 August 2026
Purpose: to preserve a practical research base outside Chat and to answer a specific question: how could the Village of Athens, Ontario, accommodate materially more housing over the next 10–25 years while respecting agricultural land, servicing constraints and the two-tier planning system?
Most important finding: the timing is unusually good. The United Counties of Leeds and Grenville is in the middle of a Growth Management Strategy to 2051 that is expressly intended to support possible settlement-area changes and the County Official Plan review. Athens should treat this as a current strategic opportunity, not a future abstract exercise.
Executive findings
Athens already anticipated eventual expansion. The Township’s 2022 Official Plan says the Athens settlement area contained about 31 hectares of vacant land, estimated at roughly 100 residential lots / a 15-year supply, and explicitly says a future Official Plan amendment may be needed to expand settlement areas depending on development activity.
The local plan now appears more restrictive than current provincial policy. Athens’ 2022 Official Plan says settlement-boundary expansion is generally tied to a comprehensive review. The Provincial Planning Statement (PPS) 2024 materially changed that regime: a planning authority may consider a new settlement area or boundary expansion at any time, subject to the current policy tests. Any actual application must be evaluated under current law and the County/Township plans; this apparent policy mismatch should be confirmed with the Counties’ planner before relying on it.
The County Growth Management Strategy is the immediate opening. UCLG’s 2025–2026 Growth Management Strategy (GMS) allocates population, dwelling and employment growth to 2051 and is intended to form the foundation for potential settlement-area changes/expansions and the County Official Plan review. The County says lower-tier municipalities are directly involved.
Prime agricultural land is not an automatic dead end—but it raises the evidentiary bar. PPS 2024 still protects prime agricultural areas. Boundary expansion should avoid prime agricultural areas where possible; where avoidance is not possible, reasonable alternatives and lower-priority agricultural lands must be examined. Agricultural Impact Assessment (AIA) requirements are now a central part of that work.
Municipal land purchase is separate from rezoning or boundary expansion. Athens does not have to own land in order for it to become development land. Strategic municipal acquisition or land banking can be useful for roads, infrastructure, affordable housing, public facilities or controlling phasing, but it should follow a land-needs and servicing strategy rather than precede it.
For Athens, servicing may be the decisive constraint. The Official Plan itself flags groundwater and private sewage/water servicing concerns. A growth strategy based only on mapping adjacent fields would be incomplete. Hydrogeology, water supply, sewage treatment, stormwater, lot yield and lifecycle infrastructure costs should be investigated at the same time as land availability.
A practical working hypothesis for Athens
Athens should not begin by choosing a farmer’s field to rezone or purchase. It should begin with a small Village Growth Study that tests: (1) how many dwellings can be accommodated inside the existing settlement boundary; (2) what density is realistic on private services; (3) whether 300–500 additional households require boundary expansion; (4) which adjoining directions have the lowest agricultural, environmental and servicing constraints; and (5) what public infrastructure or strategic land, if any, the Township should acquire.
What Athens’ own planning documents already say
1. Existing land supply
The 2022 Township Official Plan states that, within the Athens settlement-area boundary, approximately 31 hectares of vacant land had the potential to provide about 100 residential lots, described as a 15-year supply. The plan expected most future growth to occur on vacant lands within the village settlement boundary rather than primarily through intensification/infill, while also acknowledging that further settlement expansion might become necessary during the planning horizon.
Source: Township of Athens Official Plan (2022), pp. 6 and 92–93. Open source
2. Servicing constraint
The same plan says growth opportunities in the village are limited by concerns about development on private water and sewage services and by the Township’s commitment not to exacerbate groundwater-quality problems. This is a crucial point: nominal acreage inside or outside a boundary is not the same thing as developable housing capacity.
3. The 2022 boundary-expansion test
Athens’ local policy requires evidence that existing intensification/redevelopment/designated growth opportunities are insufficient; that infrastructure and public services are suitable and financially viable over their lifecycle; and, in prime agricultural areas, that alternative locations have been evaluated, specialty crop areas avoided, lower-priority agricultural land considered, MDS requirements met and impacts on nearby farms mitigated.
4. The policy environment changed in 2024
The PPS 2024 replaced the PPS 2020 and changed settlement-expansion policy. Current provincial policy allows planning authorities to consider new settlement areas or settlement-area boundary expansions at any time. The Provincial policy still requires consideration of need, infrastructure/public-service capacity, specialty crop areas, alternatives that avoid prime agricultural areas, lower-priority agricultural lands where avoidance is not possible, MDS, agricultural impacts, phased progression and other relevant considerations.
5. UCLG is doing the regional growth work now
The United Counties’ Growth Management Strategy began in 2025 and is scheduled to conclude in 2026. It will allocate growth to 2051, assess land needs, identify where growth should be focused and form the foundation for potential settlement-area changes/expansions and the 10-year County Official Plan review. This is the single most time-sensitive source in this library.
UCLG Growth Management Strategy: project page
Annotated research library
Priority A = read first / directly useful to Athens. Priority B = strong supporting research or case study. Priority C = background theory or historical context. Older sources are retained when their analytical method remains useful, but their legal-policy statements must be checked against PPS 2024.
A1 Provincial Planning Statement, 2024
Type: Ontario policy. Open source
Why it matters: The controlling province-wide planning policy statement. Section 2.3.2 governs new settlement areas and boundary expansions; Section 4.3 protects agriculture.
Athens takeaway: Use as the current legal-policy framework. The key change from the 2022 Athens plan is that expansions may now be considered at any time, rather than only through the old comprehensive-review model.
A2 Township of Athens Official Plan (Council adoption, October 2022)
Type: Local Official Plan. Open source
Why it matters: The essential local baseline: existing settlement designation, servicing constraints, growth policy, agriculture, lot creation and the local boundary-expansion test.
Athens takeaway: Start with pp. 6 and 90–93. It records the 31 ha / ~100-lot supply and explicitly anticipates that a further expansion amendment may eventually be needed.
A3 UCLG Growth Management Strategy (2025–2026)
Type: Current County strategy. Open source
Why it matters: This is the live County process allocating population, dwelling and employment growth to 2051 and assessing land needs.
Athens takeaway: This is the immediate policy window. Athens should have a clear position on desired village growth, land supply, density, servicing and possible expansion directions while this strategy is being finalized.
A4 UCLG Official Plan and Planning Services
Type: Upper-tier policy / process. Open source
Why it matters: Explains the County-wide growth-management framework and the approval relationship between local municipalities and the Counties.
Athens takeaway: A local Athens Official Plan Amendment is filed/adopted locally but, if supported, requires Counties approval. The County also approves subdivisions and conducts population/employment studies.
A5 Agricultural Impact Assessment Guidance / PPS implementation
Type: Ontario agricultural planning guidance. Open source
Why it matters: Ontario now states that AIAs are required by PPS 2024 for settlement-area boundary expansions affecting agriculture, and the process is intended to identify, avoid, minimize and mitigate impacts.
Athens takeaway: Any serious expansion options study should include agricultural-system mapping early, not as a report added after a preferred field has already been selected.
A6 Prime Agricultural Areas and Canada Land Inventory guidance
Type: Ontario technical guidance. Open source
Why it matters: Explains how prime agricultural areas are identified and protected and how CLI Classes 1–3 fit within the agricultural-system concept.
Athens takeaway: Map every parcel adjoining the village by CLI class, agricultural designation, active farm use, MDS constraints and farm-system continuity before ranking expansion directions.
A7 UCLG Agricultural Area Review
Type: Current regional agricultural mapping. Open source
Why it matters: The Counties recently completed a detailed agricultural-area review; the consultant report and LEAR mapping are highly relevant to lands around Athens.
Athens takeaway: This may be the best readily available starting dataset for determining which adjoining lands are high-priority agricultural lands and which may be less constrained.
A8 Municipal Act, 2001 – municipal power to acquire land
Type: Ontario statute. Open source
Why it matters: Confirms broad municipal powers and that a statutory power to acquire land includes expropriation power, subject to the Expropriations Act and other legal requirements.
Athens takeaway: Land acquisition is legally distinct from planning designation. Strategic purchase should be tied to a defined municipal purpose and supported by valuation, due diligence and a public-interest business case.
B1 Willes, Frances M. – A Study to Examine the Boundary Expansions of Kingston
Type: Queen’s University MPL report/thesis. Open source
Why it matters: A focused Ontario study of settlement boundary expansion over time. Useful for understanding why boundaries move, governance choices and the long-term spatial consequences of expansion.
Athens takeaway: Kingston is much larger, but the method is useful: trace historic boundary decisions, identify drivers and assess whether expansions followed infrastructure and growth strategy or simply development pressure.
B2 Kaptur, Suzanna – Healthy Rural and Small Town Built Environments through Municipal Policies
Type: University of Guelph MSc thesis, Rural Planning and Development (2014). Open source
Why it matters: Directly addresses how municipal policies can encourage innovation and healthier built environments in rural and small-town settings.
Athens takeaway: Useful when moving from 'how many lots?' to 'what kind of village growth?': street form, walkability, housing choice, municipal policy tools and adaptation of urban planning ideas to small communities.
B3 Burnett, Jennifer S. – Ontario Planners: Networks and Communities of Practice in Rural and Northern Communities
Type: University of Guelph thesis (2009/2010). Open source
Why it matters: Examines how small/rural municipalities obtain planning knowledge and professional capacity through networks.
Athens takeaway: Strongly relevant to Athens’ thin administrative capacity. A small township does not need a large planning department, but it does need structured access to County planners, consultants and specialist expertise.
B4 Babbar, S. – Investigating Commitment to Official Plan Monitoring and Evaluation in Ontario
Type: University of Waterloo thesis (2021). Open source
Why it matters: Shows that plan monitoring and evaluation are often neglected even though they are essential to evidence-based land-use decisions.
Athens takeaway: Athens should monitor actual lot creation, building permits, vacancy, housing type, land take-up and servicing performance annually rather than waiting for the next Official Plan review.
B5 Rural Ontario Foresight Papers (2019)
Type: Rural Ontario Institute white papers. Open source
Why it matters: A broad set of expert papers on rural demographic, economic, governance and community-change issues.
Athens takeaway: Useful background for the 'why grow?' discussion: population aging, workforce, service viability, economic resilience and the need for rural communities to plan proactively rather than assume historic patterns will continue.
B6 AMO – A Blueprint for Action: An Integrated Approach to Address the Ontario Housing Crisis
Type: Municipal sector white paper (2022). Open source
Why it matters: Explains municipal, provincial and development-sector roles in housing supply and the constraints municipalities face.
Athens takeaway: Useful for defining Council’s proper role: planning, approvals, infrastructure coordination, land-use policy and partnerships—not acting as the private developer for ordinary market housing.
B7 Institute on Municipal Finance and Governance – The Municipal Role in Housing
Type: Canadian policy research. Open source
Why it matters: Clarifies the range of municipal housing tools, including zoning, approvals, land acquisition for non-profit housing and financial incentives.
Athens takeaway: Useful in separating ordinary village expansion from targeted municipal land ownership. Municipal acquisition is most persuasive where there is a public objective such as affordable housing, infrastructure, civic facilities or strategic assembly.
B8 CMHC – Housing Action Plans: A Guide for Municipalities
Type: Municipal housing guide. Open source
Why it matters: Provides a structured framework for municipal housing action plans and includes discussion of municipal/public land and land banking.
Athens takeaway: A useful template for turning a growth idea into an implementation program: needs assessment, targets, municipal tools, land strategy, responsibilities and monitoring.
B9 East Gwillimbury Complete Communities Secondary Plan – Agricultural Impact Assessment
Type: Ontario case study (2025). Open source
Why it matters: A current post-PPS-2024 example showing how agricultural impacts are evaluated around a proposed settlement expansion.
Athens takeaway: Far larger and more urban than Athens, but valuable as a model for the questions, mapping and alternative-location analysis an agricultural expansion study should contain.
C1 Drake, E. – The Leap-frog Effect in the Context of Ontario’s Greenbelt
Type: University of Guelph thesis (2019). Open source
Why it matters: Studies unintended spatial effects of growth containment and protection of prime agricultural land.
Athens takeaway: Not directly applicable to Athens’ legal geography, but useful as a caution that strong boundaries can shift rather than eliminate development pressure; regional effects should be considered.
C2 Tia, A. Edwige – Impact of the Greenbelt Act on Housing and Farmland Values
Type: University of Guelph dissertation (2023). Open source
Why it matters: Examines how land-use restrictions influence farmland/property values at the rural-urban fringe.
Athens takeaway: Useful background on land-value effects and why public discussion of future boundary expansion can itself influence land speculation and acquisition cost.
A decision framework for Village of Athens growth
Step 1 — Define the growth objective
Choose a planning horizon (for example 2046/2051) and test at least three housing-growth scenarios. Do not start with acreage. Start with households, dwelling types and population.
Step 2 — Audit capacity inside the present settlement boundary
Create a parcel-level inventory of vacant designated land, oversized lots, severance potential, redevelopment sites, upper-floor commercial space, additional residential units and realistic density under private servicing.
Step 3 — Re-test the old '31 ha / 100 lots' assumption
The figure in the 2022 Official Plan is now several years old and may not represent current ownership, availability, hydrogeological feasibility or marketability. Distinguish 'designated', 'vacant', 'developable' and 'available'.
Step 4 — Map the entire village edge
For every adjoining parcel/direction, map CLI soils, agricultural designation and LEAR results, active farm operations, MDS arcs, natural heritage, wetlands/watercourses, aggregate constraints, road access, drainage, land ownership and parcel geometry.
Step 5 — Treat servicing as a growth variable, not an afterthought
Compare continued individual wells/septic or holding systems with possible communal or municipal servicing concepts. Estimate how each servicing model changes achievable density, public-health risk and lifecycle cost.
Step 6 — Rank expansion directions transparently
Use a scored matrix rather than political preference: housing yield, agricultural impact, environmental impact, infrastructure cost, road connectivity, servicing feasibility, land fragmentation, market readiness and ability to phase logically.
Step 7 — Decide whether municipal land acquisition adds value
Private development may need no municipal acquisition. Purchase/option/land banking becomes more defensible where Athens needs a future road, stormwater facility, civic land, affordable/seniors housing, servicing corridor or wants to assemble a strategically important site before land values escalate.
Step 8 — Align with UCLG while the GMS is live
Provide the Counties with an evidence-based Athens growth position. The goal should be to ensure County growth allocation and future Official Plan policy do not inadvertently lock Athens into stagnation if the Township wants growth.
Suggested 8–12 week ‘Athens Village Growth Study’ brief
Workstream
Question
Deliverable
Housing demand
How many and what types of dwellings should Athens plan for to 2051?
3 growth scenarios; demographic/housing profile
Existing land
How much genuinely developable land remains inside the boundary?
Parcel inventory; realistic unit yield
Servicing
What density can private services support, and what alternatives exist?
Hydrogeology/servicing options memo
Agriculture
Which expansion directions minimize agricultural-system impacts?
CLI/LEAR/MDS/AIA screening map
Environment
Where are natural hazards, heritage and environmental constraints?
Constraint overlay map
Infrastructure
What roads, drainage, fire/service upgrades would each option require?
Order-of-magnitude lifecycle costs
Expansion options
If more land is needed, which direction performs best?
Multi-criteria options matrix
Land strategy
Does Athens need to own any strategic parcel?
Acquire / option / partner / leave private recommendation
Implementation
What should Council do in the next 1, 3 and 10 years?
Action plan tied to UCLG GMS and OP review
What Council can—and cannot—do
Council can set a growth objective. It can decide that strengthening the village and adding housing is a strategic municipal objective.
Council can initiate studies and Official Plan amendments. It can direct staff/consultants to test land needs, servicing and settlement-boundary options and can adopt a local Official Plan Amendment, subject to the County approval framework.
Council can change zoning after the planning framework supports it. Zoning implements the Official Plan; rezoning alone cannot lawfully bypass provincial and Official Plan policy.
Council can acquire land for legitimate municipal purposes. But a purchase does not itself make the land developable. Planning approvals, servicing and other statutory constraints remain.
Council should not promise a particular private parcel will be urbanized. A defensible process compares alternatives and avoids creating the appearance that planning conclusions were predetermined.
Council should work through UCLG. The Counties allocate growth, approve local Official Plan amendments and subdivisions, and are currently undertaking the GMS that will shape growth to 2051.
Strategic implications for Athens
The research shifts the question from “Can Athens expand onto agricultural land?” to a better one: “What growth does Athens need, can the existing settlement area realistically absorb it, and if not, which expansion option best satisfies housing, servicing, agricultural and fiscal objectives?”
There is no obvious policy reason to assume that Athens must remain at its present village boundary indefinitely. In fact, its own 2022 Official Plan anticipated possible future expansion. Current PPS policy is procedurally more flexible than the local plan wording. The challenge is evidence: demand, land need, servicing, agricultural impact, infrastructure capacity and a rational comparison of alternatives.
For campaign/governance purposes, the strongest position is therefore not “expand the boundary.” It is: “Athens should decide deliberately where it wants growth to occur, and do the technical work now so that future housing is not left to chance.”
Five immediate actions worth considering
· Obtain the current UCLG draft Growth Management Strategy and extract the proposed Athens population/dwelling allocation and any settlement-area recommendations.
· Request the UCLG Agricultural Area Review/LEAR mapping for the lands immediately surrounding the Village of Athens.
· Ask the Counties planner, in writing, how PPS 2024 changes the process described in Section 3.7.6 of the Athens 2022 Official Plan.
· Map the 31 hectares identified as vacant settlement land in the 2022 plan and determine how much remains vacant, developable and actually available in 2026.
· Commission or scope a preliminary hydrogeological/servicing capacity study before selecting a preferred expansion direction.
Use note
This is a research and strategy document, not a legal opinion or planning report. Ontario planning legislation and policy have changed rapidly since 2022, and local/County Official Plans may contain transitional or more detailed provisions. Before a formal Council proposal, land purchase, Official Plan Amendment or statement about the rights of a particular property, confirm the current process with a qualified Ontario land-use planner and, where appropriate, municipal counsel.
Quick source index
A1 — Provincial Planning Statement, 2024: https://www.ontario.ca/page/provincial-planning-statement-2024
A2 — Township of Athens Official Plan (Council adoption, October 2022): https://athenstownship.ca/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/2022-Official-Plan.pdf
A3 — UCLG Growth Management Strategy (2025–2026): https://www.leedsgrenville.com/property-environment/planning-services/growth-management-strategy/
A4 — UCLG Official Plan and Planning Services: https://www.leedsgrenville.com/government/divisions/public-works/planning-services/official-plan/
A5 — Agricultural Impact Assessment Guidance / PPS implementation: https://ero.ontario.ca/notice/013-2454
A6 — Prime Agricultural Areas and Canada Land Inventory guidance: https://www.ontario.ca/page/prime-agricultural-areas
A7 — UCLG Agricultural Area Review: https://www.leedsgrenville.com/property-environment/planning-services/agriculture-area-review/
A8 — Municipal Act, 2001 – municipal power to acquire land: https://www.ontario.ca/laws/statute/01m25
B1 — Willes, Frances M. – A Study to Examine the Boundary Expansions of Kingston: https://qspace.library.queensu.ca/bitstream/1974/12674/3/Willes_Frances_M_201412_MPL.pdf
B2 — Kaptur, Suzanna – Healthy Rural and Small Town Built Environments through Municipal Policies: https://atrium.lib.uoguelph.ca/bitstreams/5b28d2e0-ab74-4d60-9c57-7c9bea994b0f/download
B3 — Burnett, Jennifer S. – Ontario Planners: Networks and Communities of Practice in Rural and Northern Communities: https://atrium.lib.uoguelph.ca/bitstreams/cb424e0c-ff03-4692-8b5f-e8565f281e80/download
B4 — Babbar, S. – Investigating Commitment to Official Plan Monitoring and Evaluation in Ontario: https://uwspace.uwaterloo.ca/bitstreams/77d50978-557a-4492-8026-ce1ca3990366/download
B5 — Rural Ontario Foresight Papers (2019): https://www.ruralontarioinstitute.ca/uploads/userfiles/files/Rural%20Ontario%20Foresight%20Papers_Oct%2023.pdf
B6 — AMO – A Blueprint for Action: An Integrated Approach to Address the Ontario Housing Crisis: https://www.amo.on.ca/sites/default/files/assets/DOCUMENTS/Reports/2022/ABlueprintforActionAnIntegratedApproachtoAddresstheOntarioHousingCrisis20220301.pdf
B7 — Institute on Municipal Finance and Governance – The Municipal Role in Housing: https://imfg.org/report/the-municipal-role-in-housing/
B8 — CMHC – Housing Action Plans: A Guide for Municipalities: https://assets.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/sf/project/cmhc/pdfs/content/en/housing-action-plans-guide-for-municipalities.pdf
B9 — East Gwillimbury Complete Communities Secondary Plan – Agricultural Impact Assessment: https://www.eastgwillimbury.ca/en/Planning-and-Development/Planning-Studies/Complete-Communities-Secondary-Plan/Supporting-studies/Agricultural-Impact-Assessment.pdf
C1 — Drake, E. – The Leap-frog Effect in the Context of Ontario’s Greenbelt: https://atrium.lib.uoguelph.ca/bitstreams/d5028b53-de73-4c5c-9ac3-8ef92c1a7cde/download
C2 — Tia, A. Edwige – Impact of the Greenbelt Act on Housing and Farmland Values: https://atrium.lib.uoguelph.ca/bitstreams/d3db1d78-134f-4697-99f3-6df3f4e9188e/download